WILDFIRES IN THE 21ST CENTURY
RETHINKING CAUSE, CONSEQUENCE, AND THE CRITICAL ROLE OF INVESTIGATION IN THE UK
BY RHODRI JONES
In an era of climate volatility, sprawling urban development, and rising societal pressures, wildfires in the United Kingdom have evolved from seasonal phenomena into persistent national threats.
No longer confined to distant wildernesses, wildfires pose real and recurring dangers to communities, economies, and ecosystems.
During the July 2022 heatwave, multiple wildfires occurred across England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. In 2022 – for the first time – the UK capital London was significantly hit by a wildfire season that included the destruction of 18 houses in the suburb town of Wennington.
In the summer of 2025, there were more than 700 recorded wildfire incidents in England and Wales that burned between 29,000 and 35,000 hectares of moorland, forest, and grassland (which is equivalent to the metropolitan area of Washington D.C), putting a huge strain on fire and rescue services. Comparatively, there were half this number in 2023 and 2024 respectively, primarily due to wet summers, however both 2023 and 2024 recorded approximately 150 more fires than 2022.
In the UK, wildfires are not forensically investigated.
Despite growing in scale and severity the UK’s fire investigation communities’ understanding of the root causes of most wildland fires remains limited, guided primarily by international literature and a lack of scientific rigor given the nuanced complexities that come with wildfire investigation. Wildfire incident record data suggests that causation is split equally between accident or negligence and deliberate ignition, with the latter potentially underreported due to the lack of investigations. This data represents not only unintentional ignitions from human activity but also intentional acts ranging from vandalism and thrill-seeking to ideological motivations. Humans are not merely victims of wildfire – they are often instigators.
REFRAMING THE CAUSE: BEYOND CLIMATE ALONE
My secondment to the UK Forestry Commission – a UK government department responsible for the management of woodlands and forests – from the Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service, reinforced what years of my research to better understand wildfire suggested: the assumed causes of wildfire are often speculative, unproven, or incomplete. The tendency to focus solely on climate or accidental human behaviors does little to inform effective prevention or policy.
Instead, the narrow focus diverts attention from the complex reality, including the underappreciated frequency and impact of deliberate ignition.
Wildfire research has also explored the concept of pyro-terrorism – arson-induced wildfires as potential tools of political violence or sabotage. Although pyro-terrorism is statistically less common than other causes of unplanned wildfire, the threat is recognized in academic literature due to its potential to disrupt infrastructure, economies, and public morale with minimal resources. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict there have been reports of wildfires – caused by drones – being used as a tactic of modern day warfare. In this sense, wildfire investigation is not only an environmental and public safety necessity but also a national security concern.
THE UK’S EMERGING RESPONSE: FROM SECURITY TO RESILIENCE
Historically, the UK lacked formal mechanisms for consistent wildfire investigation, relying instead on fragmented data and assumptions. This began to change in early 2023, during my secondment to the Forestry Commission, with the development of a UK-specific wildfire investigation framework. Drawing inspiration from international best practices, including the U.S. National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s (NWCG) F110 and F120 programs, a bespoke model was proposed in the April 2023 Wildfire Investigation Report, tailored to the UK’s landscape, urban interfaces, and operational context. (Search April 2023 Wildfire Investigation Report + Rhodri Jones.)
The framework emphasizes that investigating wildfires is not just about identifying ignition points but also about disrupting cycles of destruction before they begin, understanding fire mechanics, analyzing the psychology of arsonists, and evaluating the socio-economic drivers of landscape mismanagement. The framework also considers the strategic motivations behind deliberate ignition, ensuring that even low-probability threats such as pyro-terrorism are not ignored.
The framework and proposed training are under development but have been endorsed by the National Fire Chiefs Council, the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, the Forestry Commission, the Home Office, and Natural England, the government’s advisor for the natural environment. Given that the 2025 wildfires demonstrated a tangible national threat, the concept of wildfire investigation will hopefully evolve from a development program into a full-fledged project, supported by an array of stakeholders. The framework’s message is clear: without structured, evidence-led investigation, wildfire prevention efforts risk being reactive, inefficient, and misdirected.
WHY INVESTIGATION MATTERS NOW MORE THAN EVER
Wildfire investigation goes far beyond the mechanics of fire; it encompasses human behavior, socio-economic factors, and psychological drivers, equipping authorities to anticipate incidents, understand trends, and prevent recurrence. In the UK context, where deliberate and accidental ignitions occur in roughly equal measure, the ability to distinguish motives and patterns is essential for effective policy, resource allocation, and community safety.
International experience demonstrates the value of such approaches. In Australia, for example, arson prevention programs in primary schools that aim to reduce the number of bushfires ignited in parks near schools on Friday afternoons have had a positive impact in addressing the socio-behavioral causes of wildfire. The UK can similarly benefit from adopting evidence-led strategies and structured investigative frameworks.
MOVING FORWARD: AN URGENT CALL TO ACTION
In the UK, the 21st century demands a new paradigm for understanding wildland fire. Climate change is critical, but it does not act alone. Wildfire is also a function of politics, culture, infrastructure, psychology, and deliberate human action. The UK must invest in specialized wildfire investigative capacity, develop formal training programs, promote international knowledge exchange, and embed wildfire cause analysis into national resilience planning; this will support government departments and partner organizations in preventing, protecting against, responding to and recovering from wildfires that are increasingly becoming part of the UK’s annual risk cycle, many of which are influenced by anthropogenic factors.
Most importantly, wildfires must be treated not only as environmental disasters but as events that can involve deliberate human intent.
Rhodri Jones is a progressive fire sector professional and leader with 18 years operational, fire safety, investigative and project management experience gained within the UK and international fire and rescue services. He now works as a government scientist for the UK civil service in the Health & Safety Executive as the technical team lead for fire safety. Jones has been pioneering the concept of wildfire investigation in the UK and in 2023 produced a wildfire investigation report for the UK Forestry Commission, which examines the UK causes of wildfires and how the UK can improve its wildfire investigation capability.
